http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/projects/people-planet/2012-04-25-PeoplePlanet.pdf
(134 pages)
Summary
The 21st century is a critical period for people and the
planet. The global population reached 7 billion during
2011 and the United Nations projections indicate
that it will reach between 8 and 11 billion by 2050.
Human impact on the Earth raises serious concerns
and in the richest parts of the world per capita
material consumption is far above the level that can
be sustained for everyone in a population of 7 billion
or more. This is in stark contrast to the world’s 1.3
billion poorest people who need to consume more
in order to be raised out of extreme poverty.
The highest fertility rates are now seen primarily in
the least developed countries while the lowest fertility
rates are seen in the more developed countries
and increasingly in Asia and Latin America. Despite
a decline in fertility almost everywhere global
population is still growing at about 80 million per
year because of the demographic momentum
inherent in a large cohort of young people. The global
rate of population growth is already declining but
the poorest countries are neither experiencing nor
benefiting from this decline.
Population and consumption are both important:
the combination of increasing global population
and increasing overall material consumption has
implications for a finite planet. As both continue to
rise signs of unwanted impacts and feedback (eg
climate change reducing crop yields in some areas)
and of irreversible changes (eg the increased rate
of species extinction) are growing alarmingly. The
relationship between population consumption and
the environment is not straightforward as the natural
environment and human socioeconomic systems
are complex in their own right. The Earth’s capacity
to meet human needs is finite but how the limits
are approached depends on lifestyle choices and
associated consumption; these depend on what is
used and how and what is regarded as essential for
human wellbeing.
Demographic change is driven by economic
development social and cultural factors as well as
environmental change. A transition from high to
low birth and death rates has occurred in various
cultures in widely different socio-economic settings
and at different rates. Countries such as Iran and
South Korea have moved through the phases of this
transition much more rapidly than Europe or North
America. This has brought with it challenges different
from those that were experienced by the more
developed countries as they reached the late stages
of the transition.
Population is not only about the growing numbers
of people: changes in age structure migration
urbanisation and population decline present both
opportunities and challenges to human health
wellbeing and the environment. Migrants often
provide benefits to their countries of origin through
remittances and to their host countries by helping
to offset a workforce gap in ageing populations.
Current and future migration will be affected by
environmental change although lack of resources
may mean that the most vulnerable to these
changes are the least able to migrate. Policy makers
should prepare for international migration and its
consequences for integration of migrants and for
protection of their human rights.
Developing countries will be building the equivalent
of a city of a million people every five days from
now to 2050. The continuing and rapid growth of
the urban population is having a marked bearing
on lifestyle and behaviour: how and what they
consume how many children they have the type
of employment they undertake. Urban planning is
essential to avoid the spread of slums which are
highly deleterious to the welfare of individuals and
societies.
The demographic changes and consumption patterns
described above lead to three pressing challenges.
First the world’s 1.3 billion poorest people need
to be raised out of extreme poverty. This is critical
to reducing global inequality and to ensuring the
wellbeing of all people. It will require increased per
capita consumption for this group allowing improved
nutrition and healthcare and reduction in family size
in countries with high fertility rates.
Second in the most developed and the emerging
economies unsustainable consumption must be
urgently reduced. This will entail scaling back or radical
transformation of damaging material consumption and
emissions and the adoption of sustainable technologies
and is critical to ensuring a sustainable future for all.
At present consumption is closely linked to economic
models based on growth. Improving the wellbeing
of individuals so that humanity flourishes rather than
survives requires moving from current economic
measures to fully valuing natural capital. Decoupling
economic activity from material and environmental
throughputs is needed urgently for example by
reusing equipment and recycling materials reducing
waste obtaining energy from renewable sources
and by consumers paying for the wider costs of their
consumption. Changes to the current socio-economic
model and institutions are needed to allow both people
and the planet to flourish by collaboration as well as
competition during this and subsequent centuries. This
requires farsighted political leadership concentrating
on long term goals.
Third global population growth needs to be slowed
and stabilised but this should by no means be
coercive. A large unmet need for contraception
remains in both developing and developed countries.
Voluntary family planning is a key part of continuing
the downward trajectory in fertility rates which
brings benefits to the individual wellbeing of men and
women around the world. In the long term a stabilised
population is an essential prerequisite for individuals
to flourish. Education will play an important role: well
educated people tend to live longer healthier lives
are more able to choose the number of children they
have and are more resilient to and capable of change.
Education goals have been repeatedly agreed by the
international community but implementation is poor.
Science and technology have a crucial role to play
in meeting these three challenges by improving
the understanding of causes and effects (such as
stratospheric ozone depletion) and in developing
ways to limit the most damaging trends (such as
enhancing agricultural production with reduced
environmental impact). However attention must
be paid to the socio-economic dimensions of
technological deployment as barriers will not be
overcome solely by technology but in combination
with changes in usage and governance.
Demographic changes and their associated
environmental impacts will vary across the globe
meaning that regional and national policy makers
will need to adopt their own range of solutions to
deal with their specific issues. At an international
level this year’s Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable
Development the discussions at the UN General
Assembly revisiting the International Conference on
Population and Development (ICPD+20) scheduled
for 2014/2015 and the review of the Millennium
Development Goals in 2015 present opportunities
to reframe the relationship between people and the
planet. Successfully reframing this relationship will
open up a prosperous and flourishing future for
present and future generations.
Recommendations
Recommendation 1
The international community must bring the
1.3 billion people living on less than $1.25
per day out of absolute poverty and reduce the
inequality that persists in the world today. This will
require focused efforts in key policy areas including
economic development education family planning
and health.
Recommendation 2
The most developed and the emerging
economies must stabilise and then reduce
material consumption levels through: dramatic
improvements in resource use efficiency including:
reducing waste; investment in sustainable
resources technologies and infrastructures; and
systematically decoupling economic activity from
environmental impact.
Recommendation 3
Reproductive health and voluntary family
planning programmes urgently require political
leadership and financial commitment both
nationally and internationally. This is needed to
continue the downward trajectory of fertility rates
especially in countries where the unmet need for
contraception is high.
Recommendation 4
Population and the environment should not be
considered as two separate issues. Demographic
changes and the influences on them should be
factored into economic and environmental debate
and planning at international meetings such as the
Rio+20 Conference on Sustainable Development and
subsequent meetings.
Recommendation 5
Governments should realise the potential of
urbanisation to reduce material consumption
and environmental impact through efficiency
measures. The well planned provision of water
supply waste disposal power and other services
will avoid slum conditions and increase the welfare
of inhabitants.
Recommendation 6
In order to meet previously agreed goals for universal
education policy makers in countries with low
school attendance need to work with international
funders and organisations such as UNESCO UNFPA
UNICEF IMF World Bank and Education for All.
Financial and non-financial barriers must be
overcome to achieve high-quality primary and
secondary education for all the world’s young
ensuring equal opportunities for girls and boys.
Recommendation 7
Natural and social scientists need to increase their
research efforts on the interactions between
consumption demographic change and
environmental impact. They have a unique and vital
role in developing a fuller picture of the problems the
uncertainties found in all such analyses the efficacy
of potential solutions and providing an open trusted
source of information for policy makers and the
public.
Recommendation 8
National Governments should accelerate
the development of comprehensive wealth
measures. This should include reforms to the
system of national accounts and improvement
in natural asset accounting.
Recommendation 9
Collaboration between National Governments is
needed to develop socio-economic systems and
institutions that are not dependent on continued
material consumption growth. This will inform
the development and implementation of policies that
allow both people and the planet to flourish.