Has anyone else noticed that the countries pushing renewable energy in a big way all seem to be coal importers and those resisting are coal exporters.
The security problem for a country that relies of imported coal for electricity is should supply be cut there country grinds to a halt.
The problem with renewable at this point is they are more expensive than coal and gas and less reliable than coal and gas and cannot be expanded to the same level as coal and gas. It would be difficult to run heavy industry such as aluminum smelting and mining for copper ion ore zinc etc using only renewable energy.
This leaves those countries that adopt it in an uncompetitive position relative to countries like Australia who have coal on tap.
Those countries are going to go down the renewable energy line no matter what happens for the reasons stated above. Thermal coal exports will level out and start to drop. However coking coal (For steel making etc) and will only start to drop once the whole world has the infrastructure we have.