In 2005 the UN University in Bonn argued for a new category of refugee to cover people fleeing environmental catastrophes such as sea-level rises desert expansion and flooding.
The UN Environment Program lists climate change as one of its six priorities.
The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimated the number of all refugees worldwide at the end of 2009 to be 15.2 million and the total number of people subject to forced displacement at 43.3 million.
The European Union has an Environmental Change and Force Migration Scenarios project.
People subject to forced displacement may displace within their own countries or become asylum seekers.
Some academics in the refugee area area:
Professor of migration and refugee law at the University of NSW Jane McAdam
Cristina Tirado University of California
Professor Norman Myers Oxford University
Professor Jon Barnett of Geography University of Melbourne
Reasons for migration are always complex.
Predicting flows of migrants because of climate change at any time in the future is very difficult.
Climate change is real and could trigger migration but it is rarely the only factor. It can be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.