Went to the University of Queensland tonight and heard one of Sweden’s top physicists leading the school of research scientists studying peak energy in the world. Kjell Aleklett (pronounced Shell) from Global Energy Systems at Uppsala University in Sweden. www.fysast.uu.se/ges
Blog: aleklett.wordpress.com
Took notes and they will be loaded up on the Forum for Peak Oil.
The Human Well Being Equation:
HWB = Food (E) + Climate (E) + Economy (E) + Security (E)
E = Energy
If we want to solve the Human Well BEing Equation we must look into Energy.
In regard to climate change he thinks that the 40 models the IPCC are working with all dramatically overestimate the carbon-based energy that will be available to the global community (and causing emissions).
He went through in some detail a whole lot of graphs and explanations showing the peaking of oil gas and coal.
To the peakists I say: “You can declare victory. You are no longer the beleagured small minority of voices crying in the wilderness. You are now the main stream. You must learn to be gracious in victory.”
The global aviation industry peaked in 2008.
We must change our use of oil and stop and think initially for ourselves first what to do then think for the rest of our community. (This is what Transition The Grove is doing.)
Australia’s oil supply is now in shortfall and an increasing financial burden. We are importing more and more. The market won’t solve it since all the other countries are facing the same fact that they are having to import oil too.
China’s coal has peaked and it is using it’s market power to buy up ours as fast as it can and our foreign investment rules allow them to.
He doesn’t think fuel prices will go through the roof so much as the world go into economic decline first (causing demand to drop).
The top countries in the world for fossil fuel sources are:
USA 6329
Russia 5098
China 2502
[b]Australia 2104[/b]
Saudi Arabia 1691
India 1582
Canada 1486
Iran 1380
Germany 1023
Venezuala 1023
What does Peak Energy mean for the military and war? The US and German military are busily discussing it. He thinks that Peak Energy will make it hard to have armies and we’ll have to learn to solve differences other ways and get along.
The International Energy Agency in The World Energy Outlook for 2010 gives a cry for help. They are for the first time no longer talking about global economic growth!!!! GDP and oil demand curves follow very closely over a long period. There never was an example of economic growth without energy added into the equation.
If the residues from primary production were used to produce biogas the food production could be self-supporting in energy if we do it the right way.
But no way can using food (corn soya palm oil..) provide fuel for the transport sector. Trying would just starve the world.
Food prices are directly related to oil prices because we are eating oil. It takes 7.4 calories of energy from fossil fuels to produce 1 calorie of food on the table.
UK gas production peaked in 2000 and is now declining. Northwest Siberia natural gas will peak about 2015 then decline rapidly. Norway is peaking now.
The message is: We cannot consume things we don’t have and the future is going to be very different.