The Arab Oil Embargo was a pretty good Peak Oil simulation but it seems to have been long forgotten.
There’s a very good piece in the Guardian about the ways that Eastern Japan’s energy crisis is a model for experiences we might have in the future:
For large parts of eastern Japan that were not directly hit by the tsunami on 11 March 2011 including the nation’s capital the current state of affairs feels very much like a dry-run for peak oil. The aim here is to reflect upon the post-disaster events and compare them with those normally associated with the worst-case scenarios for peak oil.
The earthquake and tsunami affected six of the 28 oil refineries in Japan and immediately petrol rationing was introduced with a maximum of 20 litres per car (in some instances as low as 5 litres). On 14 March the government allowed the oil industry to release 3 days’ worth of oil from stockpiles and on 22 March an additional 22 days’ worth of oil was released.
The Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) which serves a population of 44.5 million lost one quarter of its supply capacity as a result of the quake through the closedown of its two Fukushima nuclear power plants (Dai-ichi and Dai-ni) as well as eight fossil fuel based thermal power stations.
When the Tokyo Metropolitican Government began to announce levels of radioactive contamination of drinking water above permissible levels this was immediately followed by the rapid sell-out of bottled water even after the levels dropped again. When bottled water is on sale in local convenience stores after some restocking took place each customer is only allowed to purchase one 2 litre bottle.
Immediately after the quake supermarkets outside the disaster area in Tokyo and other major cities began to sell out of foodstuffs including various instant meals. The electrical appliance stores sold out of batteries flashlights and portable radios.
While Japan is pretty big I think it still qualifies as an “island” nation. And I did comment about this in 2008:
http://littlebloginthebigwoods.blogspot.com/2008/05/islands-first.html
Economic power comes from energy power. Industrialization and energy production go hand in hand. If you industrialize you need terrestial energy sources whether you have them locally available or import them. Japan imports most of theirs (uranium and fossil fuels). Presumably they did this willingly. The whole point is to use the energy with net economic benefit (“to afford it”).
At the end of the day it is all about risk shifting….shifting what we perceive as obvious risks (hardship from weather sickness hard labor etc.) to more diffuse risks (global warming global radioactive contamination global resource depletion etc.). Today citizens of industrialized countries live longer and healthier as a result. But they’ve shifted the risk to others (either in different locations and/or later in time).
But eventually the diffuse risks concentrate.